化工安全与应急产业发展态势的系统动力学预测研究

This study employs a system dynamics model to simulate the evolutionary trends of the chemical safety and emergency industry in Jiangsu Province from 2015 to 2030. Initially, a literature review is conducted to identify factors related to the chemical industry, forming four subsystems within the system dynamics framework: enterprise, technology, economy, and market subsystems. Subsequently, considering the interdependencies among these subsystems, 20 factors influencing the development of the chemical industry are identified, and a system dynamics model is constructed using Anylogic software. The model's validity is further assessed using location quotient analysis. Taking the chemical safety and emergency industry in Jiangsu Province as an example, the model utilizes existing data from 2015 to 2021 to simulate and predict the aggregated output value of the chemical safety and emergency industry from 2022 to 2030. The impact of factors such as the number of enterprises, Research and Development (R&D) funding, market demand, and the proportion of the second and third industry output on industry agglomeration is revealed by analyzing the interactions and feedback loops among four subsystems. The results indicate that an increase in the number of enterprises leads to a higher degree of agglomeration in the chemical safety and emergency industry. Additionally, an increase in R&D funding and market demand both contribute to promoting industry agglomeration. When the proportion of the third industry output to GDP is high, the agglomeration degree of the chemical safety and emergency industry is also high. Overall, the development of the chemical safety and emergency industry will show a year-by-year upward trend, and the level of agglomeration will also steadily increase. This research not only holds the potential to provide a basis for government decision-making, thereby enhancing the management level of the chemical safety and emergency industry but also offers scientific guidance for the construction of a secure and sustainable chemical industry system.