A physics-based life prediction model of HP40Nb heat-resistant alloy in a coupled creep-carburisation environment

This paper reports the development of a physics-based life prediction model that incorporates three micro-damage processes. Both the particle area fraction and size, as determined using scanning electron microscopy, are used as the model input to predict the precipitate coarsening damage. Moreover, the carbon concentration profile, as measured using electron probe micro-analyser, are used to derive the carburisation damage distribution index. Compared to the Kowalewski-Dyson model, the present model can predict the stress dependent creep fracture strain and rupture time. The model, compiled into finite element via the user subroutine, can predict the heterogeneous damage accumulation of the cracking furnace tube made of HP40Nb alloy in a coupled creep-carburisation environment. The predicted total damage is comprised of precipitate coarsening and carburisation as the predominance, while the creep cavitation contributing much less due to the low internal pressure. The distribution of the precipitate coarsening is relatively homogeneous through the thickness, whereas the carburisation causes a steep increased damage value close to the inner surface. With regard to time, the precipitate coarsening damage is predominant in the initial stage, while the total damage is governed by the carburisation process with further exposure. Eventually, the total damage reaches the critical value at 59600 h, with the thickness of carburised layer exceeding 50% of the tube thickness, and the tube fails in the inner surface which agrees with the operational experience. The parametric sensitivity study reveals the importance of determining the Cr-rich carbide area fraction for the life prediction.