Influence of the source size on domino effect risk caused by fragments

We developed the movement equations for fragments with the size of the bursting vessel. The ground distributions of fragments, the probability of impact between the fragments and the target, the rupture probability of the impacted target, and the domino effect risk caused by fragments were investigated for different source types and sizes using Monte-Carlo simulations. The distribution of fragments from the lower half of the source vessels onto the ground was non-zero, that is, it is probable that the fragments would hit the target vessel close to the source. The relative difference of impact probability is larger than 10% when the target vessel is within eight times the source diameter for the three types of sources considered. The proportion of impacts of fragments from the lower part of the source to total impact decreased with distance, while that for fragments from the upper part increased. The proportion of upper and lower parts is equal for distance approximately five times the source diameter. The source size needs to be considered along with the distance from the source to the target when less than approximately 14 times the source diameter. Its effect on impact probability and domino effect risk was significant. The rupture probability of the target depended very little on the source size.