TY - JOUR
T1 - Investigation of multiple domino scenarios caused by fragments
AU - Sun, Dongliang
AU - Jiang, Juncheng
AU - Zhang, Mingguang
AU - Wang, Zhirong
AU - Zhang, Yinian
AU - Cai, Liwei
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2016 Elsevier Ltd.
PY - 2016/3/1
Y1 - 2016/3/1
N2 - A model of multiple domino scenarios and the risk of the domino effect, which is a sequential chain escalating from the primary unit to the last unit, is presented in this paper. The trajectories of fragments from all units, the ground distribution of projectiles, and the risk of the sequential chain of the domino effect were calculated using Monte Carlo simulations. The results showed that the range affected by the fragments from each tank included the other tanks, meaning that fragments from one tank could hit the other tanks and cause multiple accidents, and that the sequential chain of the domino effect could indeed happen. The distributions of ground impacts showed that tank fragments were projected over long distances, up to 1200 m from the source. The spatial distribution of the kinetic energy at ground impact for tank fragments was also obtained. Moreover, the magnitudes of the probabilities of the primary, secondary, third, and fourth accidents in the domino chain were respectively about 10-7, 10-11, 10-15, and 10-19. These results showed that for neighboring domino effect units in the same accident chain, the risk of the most recent domino effect was 104 times that of the following domino effect.
AB - A model of multiple domino scenarios and the risk of the domino effect, which is a sequential chain escalating from the primary unit to the last unit, is presented in this paper. The trajectories of fragments from all units, the ground distribution of projectiles, and the risk of the sequential chain of the domino effect were calculated using Monte Carlo simulations. The results showed that the range affected by the fragments from each tank included the other tanks, meaning that fragments from one tank could hit the other tanks and cause multiple accidents, and that the sequential chain of the domino effect could indeed happen. The distributions of ground impacts showed that tank fragments were projected over long distances, up to 1200 m from the source. The spatial distribution of the kinetic energy at ground impact for tank fragments was also obtained. Moreover, the magnitudes of the probabilities of the primary, secondary, third, and fourth accidents in the domino chain were respectively about 10-7, 10-11, 10-15, and 10-19. These results showed that for neighboring domino effect units in the same accident chain, the risk of the most recent domino effect was 104 times that of the following domino effect.
KW - Fragments
KW - Industrial explosion
KW - Multiple domino scenarios
KW - Risk assessment
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84959018298&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.jlp.2016.01.023
DO - 10.1016/j.jlp.2016.01.023
M3 - 文章
AN - SCOPUS:84959018298
SN - 0950-4230
VL - 40
SP - 591
EP - 602
JO - Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries
JF - Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries
ER -