基于 DBT-DBN 模型的气化炉超温动态风险分析

In order to strengthen safety risk management of gasifier in coal gasification units, a dynamic risk analysis approach based on DBT and DBN was applied to construct an analysis model of gasifiers' overtemperature risks. Firstly, DBT model was established by analyzing sequential dependency of failure events, and their probability was determined considering fuzzy evaluation. Then, DBT model was mapped into DBN, linguistic variables were converted into prior probabilities, and risk factors were obtained through bidirectional reasoning. Finally, dynamic risk trend of gasifier overtemperature and consequences was predicted, and critical factors were identified by diagnosis reasoning. The results show that probability of gasifier overtemperature is about 64. 4% after one year with maintenance factor taken into consideration. Among all key factors, operation error in production cycle has a greater impact, and equipment faults mainly occur in coal grinding and pulping section.