A study on the dynamic impact of carbon emission trading on green and high-quality development

As a pivotal element in market mechanisms, carbon trading is increasingly recognized as crucial for achieving China’s Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality Goals. This study introduces a comprehensive dynamic model, integrating carbon trading, emissions, economic growth, and green technology innovation, to offer a holistic understanding of the interplay between these domains. Utilizing principles from nonlinear dynamics and chaos theory, the model is adept at simulating various scenarios and assessing the effectiveness of government policies in stabilizing these complex systems. In-depth analysis provided by this research sheds light on the nuanced impact of carbon trading policies on sustainable development. Key findings highlight (1) Carbon trading’s essential role as a catalyst in propelling sustainable and high-quality growth. (2) A strong positive relationship is observed between the sophistication of the carbon trading mechanism and its effectiveness in stimulating green technology innovation and fostering high-quality green development. Notably, carbon trading’s influence on green technology innovation markedly enhances the efficacy of carbon emission reduction strategies. (3) Government regulations are instrumental in augmenting carbon prices, thus incentivizing increased corporate participation in emission reduction and enhancing the overall impact of carbon emission reduction. Nevertheless, the study identifies a critical threshold in regulatory intensity, beyond which there is a risk of system destabilization (a₃≥0.032). These findings underscore the imperative for developing an integrated national carbon emission trading market, prioritizing sustainable growth strategies and diligently pursuing China’s environmental objectives.