Influence of the cylindrical source size on impact probability caused by fragments

The movement equations of fragment with the size of the bursting vessel were developed. The ground distributions of fragments, and the probability of impact between the fragments and the target were investigated in consideration of cylindrical source size using Monte-Carlo simulations. The results showed that the distributions of the fragments from the lower half of the source vessels on the ground were larger than 0, it was simply probable that the fragments would hit the target around the source. The relative deviation of impact probability would be larger than 10% when the target vessel was located in the distance less than 8 times of the cylindrical source diameter. The proportion of impact probability of lower part of the source to the total impact probability decreased with the distance, but that of upper part increased. The proportion of upper and lower parts would be equal if the distance was about 5 times of the source diameter. The source size should be considered with the distance from the source to the target less than 14 times of the source diameter, and its effect on the impact probability was significant.