Equipment leakage risk assessment based on Fault Tree-Bayesian Network and consequence simulation

In this paper, a risk assessment method based on the fusion of Fault Tree and Bayesian Network is proposed for the leakage risk assessment of hazardous chemical production equipment. The influencing factors of typical chemical equipment leakage are first analyzed, and an equipment leakage Fault Tree is constructed according to the causal factor analysis method to quantitatively describe the possibility of leakage accidents. Then, the Bayesian Network of equipment leakage is constructed based on the Fault Tree, and it is concluded that valve failure and flange failure are the main risk factors leading to leakage. Finally, Aspen dynamics is used to establish a simulation system of acrylic acid production process. Aiming at the risk factors of reactor feed valve failure, the leakage failure caused by the valve in different degrees is simulated, and the diffusion consequence caused by leakage are calculated, which prove the effectiveness of the above methods.