Impact probability between fragments from spherical vessel explosion and cylindrical tank

Fragment projection, which is stochastic and destructive, is one of the major escalation vectors resulting in domino effect in chemical industry. Monte Carlo simulations and movement equations of the fragment in three-dimensional system were applied to exploring the characteristics of its flight and threat to nearby items, and the distribution of projectiles impact on the ground, which is compared to the accident data, was obtained with the probability density functions of random parameters reported in the literature. On this basis, the computation of the impact probability was improved, and the effects of the target orientation and volume, the distance from the source, the filling degree of source vessel, and the angle between the major axis of horizontal cylindrical target and the source on the probability of impact between the fragments from spherical vessel explosion and cylindrical target were investigated. Research results show that 2000 simulations provide a good convergence for the impact probability, which is hardly affected by the target orientation and the filling degree of source vessel, in general, increases slowly according to the target volume, decreases rapidly with the distance, and reaches the maximum of 0.0903 when the angle is 10°.